Sökning: "ensemble forecasts"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 20 uppsatser innehållade orden ensemble forecasts.

  1. 1. Forecasting Swedish FCR-D Prices using Penalized Multivariate Time Series Techniques

    Magister-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Nationalekonomiska institutionen; Lunds universitet/Statistiska institutionen

    Författare :Franz Lennart Wunderlich; Sebastian Brugger; [2023]
    Nyckelord :Swedish Energy Market; Multivariate Time-Series; Lasso; Forecasting; Noise Filtering; Business and Economics;

    Sammanfattning : The Swedish energy market is becoming more and more sustainable, with an increasing volume and number of diversified energy sources being continuously added to the mix. To stabilize the grid frequency, auctions are held to offer energy providers incentives to produce or consume energy on short notice. LÄS MER

  3. 2. Data Assimilation for Systems with Multiple Timescales

    Kandidat-uppsats, KTH/Skolan för teknikvetenskap (SCI)

    Författare :Dan Vicente Ihanus; [2023]
    Nyckelord :Mathematics; Partial Differential Equations; Numerical analysis; Data assimilation; Numerical weather prediction; Ensemble Kalman Filter;

    Sammanfattning : This text provides an overview of problems in the field of data assimilation. We explore the possibility of recreating unknown data by continuously inserting known data into certain dynamical systems, under certain regularity assumptions. LÄS MER

  4. 3. Improving Visibility Forecasts in Denmark Using Machine Learning Post-processing

    Master-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära

    Författare :August Thomasson; [2023]
    Nyckelord :visibility forecast; fog; machine learning; numerical weather predicition; XGBoost; Random Forest; siktprognos; dimma; maskininlärning; numerisk vädermodell; XGBoost; Random Forest;

    Sammanfattning : Accurate fog prediction is an important task facing forecast centers since low visibility can affect anthropogenic systems, such as aviation. Therefore, this study investigates the use of Machine Learning classification algorithms for post-processing the output of the Danish Meteorological Institute’s operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model to improve visibility prediction. LÄS MER

  5. 4. Evaluation of probabilistic forecasts in Uppsala and its potential use in winter road maintenance

    Master-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära

    Författare :Elisabet Johansson; [2023]
    Nyckelord :forecast evaluation; ensemble system; MetCoOp; winter road maintenance; snow removal; utvärdering; ensembelprognos; MetCoOp; snöröjning; vinterväghållning;

    Sammanfattning : Efficient winter road maintenance is crucial for safety and societal function during the winter months in Sweden. This report aims to evaluate the MetCoOp ensemble system CMEPS and investigate its potential use as a basis for formulating criteria for snow removal that accounts for forecasted weather. LÄS MER

  7. 5. Conform with the Wind : Processing short-term ensemble forecasts with conformal based methods for probabilistic wind-speed forecasting

    Master-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Matematisk statistik

    Författare :Simon Althoff; [2023]
    Nyckelord :wind-speed; probabilistic; forecasts; forecasting; ensemble; post-processing; conformal prediction; conformal predictive systems; quantile regression forest; non-exchangeable; Mathematics and Statistics;

    Sammanfattning : Forecasting wind has always been an interesting subject, and as large parts of the world are relying more on wind for power production it is becoming even more important to have reliable forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts, where distributions are predicted in contrast to deterministic forecasts, are impor- tant for informed decision making. LÄS MER