Kan en kommun påverka kostnaderna för bidrag? : Effekter av demografiska, ekonomiska och institutionella faktorer på försörjningsstödet

Sammanfattning: The development of total costs for social assistance varies heavily between the 290 different Swedish municipalities. A vast majority of recent litterature focus on cross-section data for individual years, or qualitative methods with a sociologic approach. Studies find support for higher rates of participation among young adults, single households (especially those with children), immigrants in general and refugees in particular, and people living in larger cities. Firm correlations are also found between social assistance and the business cycle, employment rates and the coverage of unemployment insurance. Municipalities with higher level of control in the administration of social assistance, and more experienced and specialized social workers, are found to have lower payouts. This thesis studies demographic, economic and institutional factors in longitudinal data, between 2006 and 2015. Panel regressions are performed for demographic and economic variables. For institutional factors, such as local rules or differences in administration, both a short panel and a cross-section regression are included. Social assistance appears as a complement to national social benefit systems and unemployment insurance, and less correlated to the share of low income households than expected. The results indicates lower social assistance through local labor market programs and adult education, but cannot determine whether it is due to cost passed on to national benefits or to self-sufficiency. The thesis includes some new findings; one example is a correlation between local rules, such as standardized methods in the assessment, and social assistance dependency, another is the effect of local tax policy. Population growth and share of single households do not seem to have the predicted effects on social assistance dependency, among some other examples. Further studies should focus on some specific variables, especially local rules and policies. A need for evaluation of local labor market programs, and efforts to standardize the social assistance administration, appears with distinction.