Att identifiera signaler för obestånd i tid

Sammanfattning: To be able to protect themselves from credit risk, the banks must constantly check the performance of  the companies they have lent money to. There are many mathematical models for predicting financial distress. These models use accounting-based ratios, which often are historical and not representative for the present situation. This study describes how the banks do in practice to find signals of insolvency in time and the variables they are observing for doing that. In addition to financial reports which the company sends in to the bank at least once a year, also the relationship between them and information from different information  agencies are of great importance to track  signals of insolvency. Poor profitability is the primary cause of insolvency. It is caused mainly because of bad business and leadership.  Eventually will  poor profitability lead  to consuming of equity capital and place the company in an illiquid situation. Then it may be difficult for the company to pay their bills and signals of insolvency become obvious and  the  banks start then to sharpen  their attention on the companies and intensify the follow-up works. Another find-out  of the  study  is  that local factors which  are  contributing to failure are  the  large companies that are active  in the area. When they are in a bad situation, it affects the suppliers. The big difference between service and manufacturing companies  regarding insolvency  is  that service companies are more flexible regarding cutting down costs when bad times come.