The relationship between volatility of price multiples and volatility of stock prices : A study of the Swedish market from 2003 to 2012

Detta är en Master-uppsats från Umeå universitet/Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet (USBE); Umeå universitet/Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet (USBE)

Sammanfattning:

The purpose of our study was to examine the relationship between the volatility of price multiples and the volatility of stock prices in the Swedish market from 2003 to 2012. Our focus was on the price-to-earnings ratio and the price-to-book ratio. Some previous studies showed a link between the price multiples and the volatility of stock prices, this made us question whether there should be a link between the volatility of the price multiples and the volatility of the stock prices.

The importance of this subject is accentuated by the financial crisis, as we provide investors with information regarding the movements of price multiples and stock prices. Moreover, we test if the volatility of the price multiples can be used to create a prediction model for the volatility of stock prices. Also we fill the gap in the previous researches as there is no previous literature about this topic.

We conducted a quantitative research using statistical tests, such as the correlation test and the linear regression test. For our data sample we chose the Sweden Datastream index. We first calculated the volatility using the GARCH model and then continued with our statistical tests. The results of our tests showed that there is a relationship between the volatility of the price multiples and the volatility of the stock prices in the Swedish market in the past ten years. Our findings show that the correlation coefficients vary across industries and over time in both strength and direction. The second part of our tests is concerned with the linear regression tests, mainly calculating the coefficient of determination. Our results show that the volatility of the price multiples do explain changes in the volatility of stock prices. Thus, the volatility of the P/E ratio and the volatility of the P/B ratio can be used in creating a prediction model for the volatility of stock prices. Nevertheless, we also find that this model is best suited when the economic situation is unstable (i.e. crisis, bad economic outlook) as both the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination had the highest values in the last five years, with the peak in 2008.

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