Spatio-temporal Traffic Flow Prediction

Sammanfattning: The advancement in computational intelligence and computational power and the explosionof traffic data continues to drive the development and use of Intelligent TransportSystem and smart mobility applications. As one of the fundamental components of IntelligentTransport Systems, traffic flow prediction research has been advancing from theclassical statistical and time-series based techniques to data–driven methods mainly employingdata mining and machine learning algorithms. However, significant number oftraffic flow prediction studies have overlooked the impact of road network topology ontraffic flow. Thus, the main objective of this research is to show that traffic flow predictionproblems are not only affected by temporal trends of flow history, but also by roadnetwork topology by developing prediction methods in the spatio-temporal.In this study, time–series operators and data mining techniques are used by definingfive partially overlapping relative temporal offsets to capture temporal trends in sequencesof non-overlapping history windows defined on stream of historical record of traffic flowdata. To develop prediction models, two sets of modeling approaches based on LinearRegression and Support Vector Machine for Regression are proposed. In the modelingprocess, an orthogonal linear transformation of input data using Principal ComponentAnalysis is employed to avoid any potential problem of multicollinearity and dimensionalitycurse. Moreover, to incorporate the impact of road network topology in thetraffic flow of individual road segments, shortest path network–distance based distancedecay function is used to compute weights of neighboring road segment based on theprinciple of First Law of Geography. Accordingly, (a) Linear Regression on IndividualSensors (LR-IS), (b) Joint Linear Regression on Set of Sensors (JLR), (c) Joint LinearRegression on Set of Sensors with PCA (JLR-PCA) and (d) Spatially Weighted Regressionon Set of Sensors (SWR) models are proposed. To achieve robust non-linear learning,Support Vector Machine for Regression (SVMR) based models are also proposed.Thus, (a) SVMR for Individual Sensors (SVMR-IS), (b) Joint SVMR for Set of Sensors(JSVMR), (c) Joint SVMR for Set of Sensors with PCA (JSVMR-PCA) and (d) SpatiallyWeighted SVMR (SWSVMR) models are proposed. All the models are evaluatedusing the data sets from 2010 IEEE ICDM international contest acquired from TrafficSimulation Framework (TSF) developed based on the NagelSchreckenberg model.Taking the competition’s best solutions as a benchmark, even though different setsof validation data might have been used, based on k–fold cross validation method, withthe exception of SVMR-IS, all the proposed models in this study provide higher predictionaccuracy in terms of RMSE. The models that incorporated all neighboring sensorsdata into the learning process indicate the existence of potential interdependence amonginterconnected roads segments. The spatially weighted model in SVMR (SWSVMR) revealedthat road network topology has clear impact on traffic flow shown by the varyingand improved prediction accuracy of road segments that have more neighbors in a closeproximity. However, the linear regression based models have shown slightly low coefficientof determination indicating to the use of non-linear learning methods. The resultsof this study also imply that the approaches adopted for feature construction in this studyare effective, and the spatial weighting scheme designed is realistic. Hence, road networktopology is an intrinsic characteristic of traffic flow so that prediction models should takeit into consideration.