A Tale Of Two Shocks : The Dynamics of Internal and External Shock Vulnerability in Real Estate Markets

Sammanfattning: This paper examines the major potential drivers of five international real estate markets with a focus on pushing versus pulling effects. Using a quantile regression approach for the period 2000-2015 we examine the coefficients during three different market conditions: downward (bearish), normal (median) and upward (bullish). Using monthly data we look at five of the larger securitized property markets, namely, the US, UK, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong. We find inconclusively that stock market volatility, as measured by the pushing factor VIXS&P500, best informs property market returns during bearish market environment. We also find that our pulling factors, money supply, treasury yields and unemployment presents theoretically grounded results in most cases with the expected signage. However, compared to the volatility index, pulling factors are not as uniformly suited for informing property market returns during bearish markets. We also find a range of insignificant results, which might be indicative of a suboptimal model specification and/or choice of estimation method.