Brexit – Det troliga i det otroliga

Sammanfattning: The United Kingdom’s choice to leave the European Union came as a surprise for a large part of the politicians in EU. But it was not only a surprise for politicians outside of the UK, even Boris Johnson a front figure for the UK leave campaign was surprised at the referendum result. The choice to leave EU can be considered a result sprung from the dissatisfaction with EU policy in the UK. The study summarizes and combine EU enlargement theories, which try to explain why countries outside the EU would want to join the EU and why countries inside the EU would want to accept new countries, to analyze the leave campaign’s arguments for leaving the EU. The findings suggest that, given the facts presented by the leave campaign, leaving the EU is not a surprising result. At the same time the findings suggest that some parts of the theory need to be revised to explain why a country would want to leave the EU.