A comparative study on artificial neural networks and random forests for stock market prediction

Detta är en Kandidat-uppsats från KTH/Skolan för datavetenskap och kommunikation (CSC)

Sammanfattning:

This study investigates the predictive performance of two different machine learning (ML) models on the stock market and compare the results. The chosen models are based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forests (RF). The models are trained on two separate data sets and the predictions are made on the next day closing price. The input vectors of the models consist of 6 different financial indicators which are based on the closing prices of the past 5, 10 and 20 days. The performance evaluation are done by analyzing and comparing such values as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean average percentage error (MAPE) for the test period. Specific behavior in subsets of the test period is also analyzed to evaluate consistency of the models. The results showed that the ANN model performed better than the RF model as it throughout the test period had lower errors compared to the actual prices and thus overall made more accurate predictions.

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