Term Structure Modeling near the Zero Lower Bound: Regime Switching & Monetary Policy

Sammanfattning: This thesis proposes a regime-switching extension to the well known autoregressive gamma and gamma-zero process nesting its linear counterpart. The affine term structure model based on the new process matches key stylized facts of interest rates during a zero lower bound period as well as in normal times. The regime structure uses interest rate option implied densities and builds on smooth transition regression trees, relating to potential Big Data as well as high frequency applications. Results for the US and EU show an improvement in the fit for the yield level, especially at the short end of the term structure.