Energy poverty in the Dublin region : modelling geographies of risk

Sammanfattning: Energy poverty (EP) is, in the scholarly literature, defined as a household’s inability to obtain a socially and materially acceptable level of energy services in the home. This is a widespread issue affecting an estimated 50 to 125 million people in Europe. Measures to tackle EP have yielded successes using proactive area-based schemes that target groups of households in the same geographic area. The effectiveness of such schemes depends on the ability to accurately identify areas with large portions of energy poor households. EP risk modelling in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is one way such areas can be identified. In Ireland however, there is currently no area-based EP alleviation programme proactively seeking out high-risk communities. Moreover, the scholarly work on modelling EP risk is at best nascent. Meanwhile, the number of energy poor households in Ireland is increasing. Against this background, this study aims to: 1) develop a model for predicting geographic areas at high risk of EP in Ireland, and validate the model’s accuracy; 2) apply the model to the Dublin region and identify high-risk areas and groups of energy poor households. These objectives are pursued using a mixed-methods approach. First the prediction model is designed and applied using a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). The model datasets include Irish Census 2011 variables as well as a unique dwelling energy efficiency dataset. Subsequently, the accuracy of the model predictions is evaluated using structured interviews. These provide additional insights into differences in household experiences with EP. These methods and research steps lead to crucial results both methodologically and in terms of insights for the study area. The model of best fit is one that emphasises social risk factors. This notwithstanding, the study results further stress that EP risk must be modelled considering both social and physical risks to account for the complexity of the problem. For the study area, a distinct geography of high-risk areas is identified along the river Liffey in the Dublin City area. Furthermore, the study establishes three types of energy poor households, highlighting that affected households are not homogenous and require different alleviation policies. The findings consequently lead to a set of diverse policy recommendations. These include, for example, conducting targeted information campaigns in high-risk areas to increase awareness of existing policy programmes, and redesigning current financial assistance to account for the energy efficiency of dwellings.