Risk analysis and naval architecture in the period 1950-2010

Sammanfattning: This thesis treats the historical development of the marine industry worldwide and its relation to risk analysis during the 60 year period of 1950 to 2010. The relation between the two is found through analysis of what risks connect the two and drive the development of technology and legislation during different time periods. There is little to no previous research on this particular subject particularly using a risk perspective of complex systems. To do this it became necessary to write a summary of the development of the maritime industry in technological and legislative terms, in modern time, while at the same time revealing clear insights in how this development works. The summary is based on a wide variety of different sources, and therefore gives a reasonably accurate description of the development given the period and scope looked at. Generalizing the development is found to be that risks force legislative changes, and that technological development is sometimes responsible for causing the risks. That said, many technological developments also help reduce overall risk. The major conclusion drawn is that when a risk is acknowledged there is a conscious effort made to minimize or eliminate it, which in turn is a development, a system change of sorts that might have generated new risks. Overall the evolution of the maritime industry has led to a system that is resilient towards risks, yet that still responds to risks actively and often rather efficiently once they become apparent.