Tillbaka till framtiden : Fyra scenarier för EU:s framtid efter eurokrisen

Sammanfattning: The starting point of this study is theories of European integration, which are used to formulate different scenarios about the future of the European Union. This is made in regards to the eurocrisis which has intensified the discussion about how to change the construction of the euro to overcome the economic difficulties that has arisen. In this study, four different scenarios are presented: "An updated Europe", "A new Europe", "The death of the euro" and "Goodbye Greece". The first two scenarios takes its starting point in the neofunctionalist theory of European integration and describes how the EU might increase its level of integration in different ways. We can either see a development where the EU tries to improve the implementation of the rules that are meant to coordinate the member states’ economic policy, or we might encounter a more advanced integration where fiscal policy competences are transferred to the EU-level. The latter scenarios, however, takes another theory in to account, liberal intergovernmentalism, and describes how the eurozone might be fragmented in different ways due to conflicts of interest between lenders and countries that has to receive loan-packages. In the third scenario the euro stands in front of a collapse. This is connected to a situation where Spain, which is one of the largest economies in the EU, is starting to have similar problems as countries like Grecce, Ireland and Portugal. The fourth scenario describes a more ordered progress where Grecce, as part of a joint decision with the other EU-members, decides to abolish the euro as their currency. This is a way for the EU to reduce its economic burden, in the same time as Greece are given an opportunity to use an independent monetary policy to cope with their problematic situation.