Sökning: "election prediction"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 11 uppsatser innehållade orden election prediction.

  1. 1. Sverige och EU-folkomröstningen 1994 - Vilka hade rätt och vilka hade fel?

    Kandidat-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Statsvetenskapliga institutionen

    Författare :Dante Helling; [2020]
    Nyckelord :Sweden; EU; Election 1994; European Integration; Comparison.; Law and Political Science;

    Sammanfattning : This thesis aims to take a closer look into the 1994 EU-referendum in Sweden. More precisely to analyse the arguments used by the political campaigns run by the organisations “Folkrörelsen nej till Europa” (The peoples movement against Europe) and “Ja till Europa” (Yes to Europe) in the run-up to the referendum. LÄS MER

  3. 2. Biased While Betting on Bernie? A cross-sectional and panel data analysis of prediction error in U.S. election prediction markets from 2015 to 2020

    D-uppsats, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm/Institutionen för nationalekonomi

    Författare :Daniel Evans; [2020]
    Nyckelord :prediction markets; political science; behavioral economics; U.S. elections; bias;

    Sammanfattning : A consensus seems to have emerged that political prediction markets can lose predictive power when certain efficiency criteria are not met. With a cross-sectional dataset of 570 prediction markets about U.S. elections and a panel dataset with 6,465 days of trading from PredictIt. LÄS MER

  4. 3. USING SEARCH QUERY DATA TO PREDICT THE GENERAL ELECTION: CAN GOOGLE TRENDS HELP PREDICT THE SWEDISH GENERAL ELECTION?

    Magister-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Statistiska institutionen

    Författare :Rasmus Sjövill; [2020]
    Nyckelord :Polling; Big Data; Google Trends Data; Political Prediction; Web Search Data;

    Sammanfattning : The 2018 Swedish general election saw the largest collective polling error so far in the twenty-first century. As in most other advanced democracies Swedish pollsters have faced extensive challenges in the form of declining response rates. To deal with this problem a new method based on search query data is proposed. LÄS MER

  5. 4. Election Forecasting in a Multiparty System

    Kandidat-uppsats, Göteborgs universitet/Institutionen för nationalekonomi med statistik

    Författare :Stefan Lindborg; [2019-01-31]
    Nyckelord :Election forecasting; Polling; Multiparty systems; Dynamic Linear Models; DLM; Kalman filtering; Swedish elections;

    Sammanfattning : This bachelor thesis in statistics covers the subject of election forecasting in a multiparty system, using polling data, that is data collected to measure party support, and dynamic linear models (DLMs) with Kalman filtering. In terms of decision-making the outcome of an election can be thought of as an uncertainty. LÄS MER

  7. 5. Forecasting Election Results: A Bayesian Frequentist Comparison

    Kandidat-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Statistiska institutionen

    Författare :Oldehed Erik; [2019]
    Nyckelord :Bayesian forecasting; frequentist forecasting; non-homogeneous hidden Markov models; autoregression; kernel smoothing; Mathematics and Statistics;

    Sammanfattning : We present a Bayesian and frequentist comparison when forecasting elections through polls. Our focus is on studying the differences of these approaches in forecasting elections. An evaluation of the fit is performed using the odds ratio. LÄS MER