Sökning: "negative binomial distribution"

Visar resultat 1 - 5 av 18 uppsatser innehållade orden negative binomial distribution.

1. 1. Modeling Stoppage Time as a Convolution of Negative Binomials

   Uppsats för yrkesexamina på avancerad nivå, Uppsala universitet/Avdelningen för systemteknik

   Författare :Råvan Talani; [2023]
   Nyckelord :Machine learning; negative binomial; convolution; stoppage time; injury time; extra time; football;

   Sammanfattning : This thesis develops and evaluates a probabilistic model that estimates the stoppage time in football. Stoppage time represents the additional minutes of play given after the original matchtime is over. It is crucial in determining the course of events during the remainder of a match, thereby affecting the odds of live sports betting. LÄS MER

3. 2. Pricing and Modeling Heavy Tailed Reinsurance Treaties - A Pricing Application to Risk XL Contracts

   Master-uppsats, KTH/Matematisk statistik

   Författare :Ormia Abdullah Mohamad; Anna Westin; [2023]
   Nyckelord :Reinsurance; Extreme Value Theory; POT-model; Hill estimator; Risk XL contracts; Generalized Pareto distribution; Method of Moments.; Återförsäkring; Extremevärdesteori; POT-modellen; Hill estimatorn; Risk XL kontrakt; generella Paretofördelningen; Momentmetoden.;

   Sammanfattning : To estimate the risk of a loss occurring for insurance takers is a difficult task in the insurance industry. It is an even more difficult task to price the risk for reinsurance companies which insures the primary insurers. LÄS MER

4. 3. Favourable Opportunities in Sports Betting - A Statistical Approach to Football Goals in the Premier League

   Kandidat-uppsats, KTH/Matematisk statistik

   Författare :Fredrik Lindau; Gustaf Carle; [2022]
   Nyckelord :statistics; Poisson distribution; Negative Binomial distribution; Bayesian regression; football; Premier League; sports betting; market efficiency; probability theory; estimations; statistik; Poisson fördelning; Negativ Binomial fördelning; Bayesiansk regression; fotboll; Premier League; betting; marknadseffektivitet; sannolikhetsteori; skattningar;

   Sammanfattning : The premise of this report is to delve into sports betting and whether favourable opportunities can be found, more specifically focusing on over and under odds for number of goals scored in football games of the Premier League. Using historical data from football matches several models are developed, the characteristics of goals warranting the use of probability based Poisson and Negative Binomial models, as well as Bayesian Poisson regression for goal predictions. LÄS MER

5. 4. Impact of Women Education on Fertility: A case study of The Gambia

   Magister-uppsats, Lunds universitet/Ekonomisk-historiska institutionen

   Författare :Rohey Jammeh; [2020]
   Nyckelord :fertility; women education; negative binomial distribution; Poisson; Business and Economics;

   Sammanfattning : This research contributes to the ongoing debate on whether women's education and fertility are inversely related. It is seen that during the premodern era, the number of children born per woman was high and the only thing that kept population growth low was the high death rate. LÄS MER

7. 5. An Empirical Comparison of Static Count Panel Data Models: the Case of Vehicle Fires in Stockholm County

   Kandidat-uppsats, Uppsala universitet/Statistiska institutionen

   Författare :Svante Pihl; Leonardo Olivetti; [2020]
   Nyckelord :Low-Mean Count Data; Poisson Regression; Negative-Binomial Regression; Panel Data Models; Vehicle Fires; Distributional Assumptions;

   Sammanfattning : In this paper we study the occurrences of outdoor vehicle fires recorded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) for the period 1998-2019, and build static panel data models to predict future occurrences of fire in Stockholm County. Through comparing the performance of different models, we look at the effect of different distributional assumptions for the dependent variable on predictive performance. LÄS MER