Modelling Grain Surplus/Deficit in Cameroon for 2030

Sammanfattning: Central Africa has the lowest food production per capita, slow yield development and the fastest growing population in the world. This study aimed to develop a model, which estimates the grain surplus or deficit in Cameroon for 2015-2030. Grains form the main diet in Cameroon and the modelled grains in this project are sorghum, millet, rice and maize. Additionally, in the case of a deficit, the yield growth needed to meet consumption in 2030 was calculated and interviews were conducted with farmers in Cameroon. The model results show that a deficit for maize and rice is expected in 2030 but not for millet and sorghum. Yield growth needed for rice is high whereas the maize yield growth needed is smaller. Main identified problems for further production growth are climate change, population growth, postharvest losses and the access to resources such as fertilizers, mechanization, and preservation technology.