Kunde den inverterade avkastningskurvan prediktera finanskrisen?

Sammanfattning: Purpose: The purpose with this paper is to investigate if the inverted yield curve was a good predictor of the financial crisis and the following U.S recession and, if this is the case, which yield spread had highest level of significance. Methodology: The methodology is a quantitative study with a simple linear regression model based on econometric theory. Theory: The theoretical framework is built on hypothesis about the curvature of the yield curve and general causes of interest rates. Conclusion: The conclusion of this thesis is that the slope of the yield curve is significant predictor of future GDP growth.