"Budapest in Warzaw" eller en polsk palatsrevolution? : en fallstudie om avdemokratisering i Polen

Sammanfattning: Taking off from a security related interest in de-democratization processes throughout Europe and the limited theoretical field thereof, this paper examines the political development in Poland 2008-2018. Through a comparison of the development in Poland and Hungary, the ambition is to identify what differs the de-democratization process of the two East European countries in regards to their communist past and in a broader sense to their current membership in the European Union. To guide the comparison is the theoretical framework of Merkel (2004), through both qualitative and quantitative analysis as it has been applied on Hungary by Bogaards (2018). The combined framework provides five categories of defect democracies: exclusive, illiberal, delegative, tutelary and diffusely defect. While Bogaards (2018) categorizes Hungary as a diffusely defect democracy, the study finds that Poland does not adhere to any single one of the categories. The question of what differs the development in Poland and Hungary is best answered in terms of legality. Whereas the systematic Hungarian process has been carried out within legal frames of the majority rule in parliament, the hasty Polish process resembles a palace revolution, as the leading party is interfering with and partly controlling the rule of law. The study provides support to the observations of the EU being an externally limiting, enabling and legitimizing factor of autocratic developments in member states, made by Bozóki and Hegedüs (2018). Additionally, a reverse snowball effect is being put to action by Poland and Hungary vetoing on EU sanctions against one another. The findings of the paper also support observation made of a limited research field; theoretical understanding and international measurement indexes of democratization being insufficient in explaining and describing the emerging de-democratization. The study opens up for further research regarding democratic peace in Europe.