Ska man tro på aktie-Nostradamus? : en studie om aktierekommendationers värde för privata investerare

Sammanfattning: Intro: 80 percent of the Swedish population own shares. This makes Sweden the leading country in private investment in securities. It can be difficult for the private investor to know where, when and which security to invest in. The strategies are as ambivalent as the stock markets fluctuations. If the investor prefers to refrain from investing money himself, there are brokers who carry out these types of services. Brokers use complex calculations and analytical tools to reach the best investment strategies. Their results are based on historic data from public information. According to the theory of the efficient market hypothesis, it is not possible to generate excessive returns on investments which are based on publicly available information. Purpose: The study aims to assess if stock recommendations published in a business newspaper have any value for investors, who hopes to generate high returns. Methodology: Since the data is quantitative, a deductive method is used to comprehend the results. Investments are divided into two fictive portfolios where one portfolio follows a passive investment strategy whilst in the other, active investments based on public information are made. A one-sample t-test is used to obtain the statistics for answering the hypothetical questions. Theoretical: The primary theory for the essay is the theory of efficient market hypothesis, perspectives but also passive investment strategies and the random walk hypothesis are being touched upon. Empirical: A study has been conducted of recommendations with the recomendations foundations found on DI.se between 01.01.2005 and 31.12.2006, as the study objects. Theprimary sources have been DI.se and the NASDAQ OMX. The results from the data are solely products of my own empirical findings. Conclusion: The results signify a large difference between a passive and an active investment strategy, although the statistical results indicates no significancy.