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Detta är en Uppsats för yrkesexamina på avancerad nivå från Lunds universitet/Fastighetsvetenskap

Sammanfattning: One way to measure the attractiveness of a local housing market is Tobin’s Q. On the market for single-family housing property, Tobin’s Q is usually defined as the ratio between the market value of the property and its investment cost. This means that the quota can serve as an indicator on whether it is profitable to build a new house or not. The theory states that Tobin’s Q above 1,0 indicates that it is profitable to build, while a value below 1,0 indicates the opposite. This thesis includes a mapping of Tobin’s Q on the single-family housing property market in Scania’s municipalities, where differences in value-bearing properties of houses and property’s as well as geographic locations are taken into account. Each municipality is divided into sub-areas and for each area data is gathered for developed and undeveloped properties. Furthermore, the study aims to investigate issues that might arise when calculating Tobin’s Q and how values substantially above 1,0 can be interpreted and explained. In order to produce a market value for the standard property, the numerator of Tobin’s Q, a hedonic pricing model is constructed which is estimated with a regression analysis. The Tobin’s Q quota corresponds to the ratio of two equivalent properties. Therefore, the market value of an undeveloped property with the same size as the standard property is calculated. Also the cost to build a house with the same size as the house of the standard property is calculated. The two values represent the denominator of Tobin’s Q. The survey shows that Tobin’s Q vary a lot between the municipalities of Scania. There are also inter-regional differences within each municipality. Tobin’s Q is calculated for a total of 94 sub-areas, of which 62 exhibit a value below 1,0. Five areas have values that significantly exceed 1,0 and are all above 1,5. These values are mainly explained by a mismatch between the data materials for the numerator and denominator, i.e. the properties with developed plots have been sold in other areas than the sales of the undeveloped plots. The result of the study indicates that construction costs and how you geographically define the sub-areas, are the two factors that have the greatest impact on Tobin’s Q for the single-family housing property market. Since price levels vary greatly between different locations within a municipality, a detailed subdivision is desirable. However, this requires that a sufficient number of sales have been made for each specific sub-area, otherwise the result may be unreliable. Calculating construction costs is of great importance, since it represents a large part of the denominator’s total value, and therefore will have a big impact on Tobin’s Q. If possible, the use of local construction costs are preferable.

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