Rentier-teorin, politisk stabilitet och demokrati i MENA-regionen : En kvantitativ studie om rentier-teorin som förklaringsmodell till MENA-regionens varierande grad av demokrati och politiska stabilitet

Sammanfattning: This study’s purpose is testing the rentier state theory’s relationship to the degree of democracy and political stability in the MENA-region. In order to fulfill the aim of this study three research questions are formulated: what kind of relationship exists between oil export per capita and political stability in the MENA region? To what extent does the rentier state theory explain the variation in the degree of democracy in the MENA region? What kind of relationship exists between the rentier state theory and the degree of democracy in the MENA region? To which four hypotheses are formulated. Furthermore, to test these hypotheses and thereby meet the purpose of this study, its methodological approach consists of two regression models: one multiple regression analysis and one bivariate regression analysis. The former is set out to test the relationship between the dependent variable degree of democracy and the independent variables oil rent, tax revenue and political stability, using the control variable HDI. The latter regression analysis is employed to test the relationship between oil export per capita as the independent variable and political stability as the dependent variable. The multiple regression model finds insufficient support for the rentier state theory as an explanatory model for the variation in democracy in the MENA region, only observing a significant relationship with tax revenue. Whereas the bivariate regression model finds a significant positive relationship between oil export per capita and political stability. These findings do not exclude the possibility that the rentier state theory can explain variations in the degree of democracy in other oil rich regions outside of the Middle East and North Africa region. Nor do the results exclude the possibility of the rentier state theory explaining the variations in degree of democracy in certain MENA region countries. Additionally, there is reason to believe that a higher oil export per capita contributes to a higher degree of political stability in the MENA region. The observations of this study are problematized using earlier research that propose further studies including explanatory factors beyond the rentier state theory in the MENA region. These factors include armed conflicts, post colonialism and religious radicalization.