Hellre överkvalificerad än undersysselsatt - om övergångsfrekvensen till högre utbildning i Sverige under 80 år

Sammanfattning: This essay aims to explain the fluctuations in the Swedish transition rate to higher education between 1923 and 2002. With theories of human capital, and screening, as points of departure, seven variables are selected and their correlation with the transition rate investigated by use of graphs and tables. The variables are unemployment, youth unemployment, the supply of academics, cohort size, number of high school graduates from programs preparing for ensuing studies, relative wage trends for worker categories with differing levels of education, and structural phase. Results show that no single variable nor the theories of human capital or screening can explain the fluctuations in transition rate in full. Instead I propose a theoretic model which amalgamates the above and places risk aversion as the driving force behind the individual’s educational decision. Consequently, the fluctuations in transition rate are a function of how consistent higher education is with risk aversion.