From a pandemic to a financial crisis?
Sammanfattning: The main objective of this study is to create a model that can predict the probability of a financial crisis and apply it to the Swedish economy of today. Using a logistical regression model, a quantitative study is conducted by investigating a cross-sectional data set covering 18 countries stretching over approximately 150 years. Seven macroeconomic and financial variables were found significant. Variables found significant include Credit to GDP, Stock Prices, and Current Account amongst others. A multivariate regression model is designed to predict the probability of a financial crisis in Sweden, analyzing data between the years 1980 - 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic is still taunting the world with its presence and has considerable effects on the Swedish economy of today. Predictors of financial crises have been affected by the pandemic and led to the notion that we might be exchanging a pandemic for a financial crisis. Results from created models indicated that Sweden is moving towards a crisis in the near future.
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