Early Stratification of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM) by building and evaluating machine learning models

Sammanfattning: Gestational diabetes Mellitus (GDM), a condition involving abnormal levels of glucose in the blood plasma has seen a rapid surge amongst the gestating mothers belonging to different regions and ethnicities around the world. Cur- rent method of screening and diagnosing GDM is restricted to Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT). With the advent of machine learning algorithms, the healthcare has seen a surge of machine learning methods for disease diag- nosis which are increasingly being employed in a clinical setup. Yet in the area of GDM, there has not been wide spread utilization of these algorithms to generate multi-parametric diagnostic models to aid the clinicians for the aforementioned condition diagnosis.In literature, there is an evident scarcity of application of machine learn- ing algorithms for the GDM diagnosis. It has been limited to the proposed use of some very simple algorithms like logistic regression. Hence, we have attempted to address this research gap by employing a wide-array of machine learning algorithms, known to be effective for binary classification, for GDM classification early on amongst gestating mother. This can aid the clinicians for early diagnosis of GDM and will offer chances to mitigate the adverse out- comes related to GDM among the gestating mother and their progeny.We set up an empirical study to look into the performance of different ma- chine learning algorithms used specifically for the task of GDM classification. These algorithms were trained on a set of chosen predictor variables by the ex- perts. Then compared the results with the existing machine learning methods in the literature for GDM classification based on a set of performance metrics. Our model couldn’t outperform the already proposed machine learning mod- els for GDM classification. We could attribute it to our chosen set of predictor variable and the under reporting of various performance metrics like precision in the existing literature leading to a lack of informed comparison.