Effekt av euron? : En ekonometrisk analys av Sveriges export till Tyskland och Storbritannien
Sammanfattning: The purpose of this thesis is to analyze if the euro has had any significant effect on Sweden´s export to Germany, a country that adopted the euro as their currency, and to United Kingdom, a country that did not adopt the euro as their currency. The purpose is answered by developing an econometric model with exports from the third country, in this study Sweden, as the dependent variable. The model is estimated with OLS and process panel data for the countries Germany and United Kingdom, and the timespan 1980-2017. The result shows a general decrease in exports from Sweden to both Germany and United Kingdom after the year 1999. Furthermore, the result shows evidence that the export to Germany is significantly higher than the export to United Kingdom during the whole time period. Although, the result does not show a significant change in the difference of the export between the two countries after implementing the euro, thereby we can not say that the euro has had any effect on the export from Sweden to Germany. In consideration of previous studies, we do not get any clear result to rely on and therefore we can not tell how the export should have been affected after the implementation of the euro. The non significant result can be explained by the fact that there could be non quantifiable variables that affects the export, or other factors that are not included in the model. The conclusion from our paper is that there should exist more variables that affect the export other than those we have included in our model. Therefore, we believe that further studies should put focus and time on developing a more complete model than the one we estimated, and therefore get a more robust result.
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