Behind the scenes of lockdowns and quarantines : A quantitative assessment of how legitimacy and capacity shaped early governmental responses to Covid-19 in European countries

Sammanfattning: This thesis aims to gain insight to lockdowns and social distancing measures taken by European governments during the early period of the Covid-19 pandemic. Questions have been raised of whether the variations of responses can be systematically explained, which have so far received little attention in research. However, prior research has stressed the importance of government capacity and legitimacy for the facilitation of a crisis response. On the one hand, capacity to coordinate within governing authorities, and with external actors is crucial. On the other hand, emphasis is put on cultural factors, such as citizens’ trust in political institutions. Through a quantitative analysis of 30 European countries, this thesis maps the stringency of measures implemented by governments. Furthermore, utilizing an expert survey from SGI (Sustainable Governance Indicators) and the Eurobarometer survey (2019), this thesis asks how coordination capacity and political trust are associated with the maximum stringency of policy responses implemented by governments. Using bivariate and multivariate regressions, the models suggest that European countries with high coordination capacity are more likely to implement modest policy responses, while European countries with low coordination capacity are more likely to implement strict policy responses. A possible understanding is that countries with high coordination capacity weigh alternatives and address certain issues, instead of beating the drum all at once. As expected, there is a negative relationship between political trust and stringency of policy responses, but further research is needed to confirm this covariation. The complexity of the Coronavirus crisis complicates a comprehensive understanding of governmental responses. However, this thesis contributes with early insights and provides a piece of the puzzle as to why European governments have acted so differently.