Riskanalys och tunnlar – hur bör händelser med låg sannolikhet och hög konsekvens hanteras?

Detta är en Master-uppsats från Lunds universitet/Riskhantering (CI)

Sammanfattning: Events that can be described as high impact and low probability (HILP-events) have been proven difficult to deal with, for example background data often is sparse. Due to the construction of traffic tunnels these events need to be taken into consideration. A tool for doing this is risk analysis, and with this tool the events can be identified and handled with a quantitative or qualitative approach. This Master’s Thesis investigates what current research suggest about how HILP-events should be included in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The Master’s Thesis also investigates how HILP-events are dealt with in practice today by interviewing relevant actors. The result from the investigations led up to five recommendations regarding improvement for how HILP-events can be managed in a risk analysis for traffic tunnels. The recommendations are as follows; HILP-events need to be taken into consideration in risk analysis for traffic tunnels; A holistic approach, resilience and complexity are all aspects which should be integrated in an early stage when dealing with HILP-events; When identifying HILP-events the process should start in an early stage of the project, if possible the process should be iterative; If the risk of HILP-events is to be quantified the uncertainties connected to this should be presented. Presenting an absolute risk should be avoided; Uncertainties in the background knowledge which is used when quantifying the risk needs to be presented. A long-term solution is to create a database for tunnel related “near misses” and accidents.

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