Ensemble Forecasting: A data analysis

Sammanfattning: This thesis covers the use of ensemble forecasts, how they work and their benefits. It will also give a brief history of weather forecasting followed by an evaluation, where ensemble mean precipitation data from the ECMWF is compared to observation data for 21 different observation stations spread across Sweden. From the evaluation, the mean has difficulty representing amounts of precipitation correctly for high amounts of rainfall but does a good job in describing when the precipitation will fall. The ensemble mean forecast has a generally lower RMSE for the northern observation stations, which would indicate that it does better at accurately forecasting the coming weather for these stations.