Naturgas i Australien år 2020 : Framtida konsumtion, export, import och produktion samt konsumtion under inverkan av ett klimatavtal

Sammanfattning: Australia is one of the largest producers and consumers of fossil fuels in the world. In a society where the effects of fossil fuels on global warming are constantly discussed, the nation’s production and consumption are subject to debate. Problems arise when negative aspects of consumption, such as emissions of greenhouse gases, are put in relation to an increased need of energy and economic growth. However, it is important to distinguish between different types of fossil fuels when it comes to their individual impact on the environment and to analyze the possibilities to increase the more environmental friendly ones. Such an energy source is natural gas, which emit less greenhouse gasses than the extensive use of coal and oil in Australia.This paper reports on the future use of natural gas in Australia, depending on a modulation of consumption, export, import and total production until the year of 2020. These predictions are based on fitting curves to historical data. Further, the consumption of natural gas, coal and oil are investigated until the year of 2020 with the impact of three different climate agreements based on formal commitments in the Climate Change Conference 2010, in Copenhagen. The modulation is also depending on factors such as an assumed increase in the demand of energy and an assumed use of renewable energy.In the paper, the use of natural gas is modulated in the year of 2020 to a consumption of 1 739 PJ, an export of 1 493 PJ, an import of 321 PJ and a total production of 2911 PJ. With a climate agreement that demands a reduction of 5 percent in greenhouse gases in the year of 2020 compared to the amount in the year of 2000, the consumption of natural gas, oil and cole is estimated to be 5 976 PJ, 346.8 PJ and 827.7 PJ, respectively. These numbers are related to a consumption of renewable energy sources of 481.4 PJ. A climate agreement which constitute 15 and 25 percent reductions in greenhouse gases, oil and coal were estimated to reach a value of zero before the year of 2020. The paper makes the conclusion that the possibility of reaching the goals in the climate agreement is unlikely under existing circumstances.