INVESTMENT ADVICE FROM INSIDERS : The impact of Insider Trading on Long-Term IPO Stock Performance in Sweden
Sammanfattning: This thesis analyzes and evaluates the relationship between insider trading and the long-term stock performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPO) in Sweden. The study looks at firms that recently conducted an IPO and how the stock performance of the firm is impacted by insiders making transactions in their own stock. An IPO is known to generate high returns on its first day on the public stock market, but to underperform the market in the long term. The characteristics of an IPO are deviant from the rest of the stock market, and with less information available to the public compared to other firms, the IPO market is hard to navigate for investors. Transactions made by insiders in the share of their own company is usually seen as guidance in public companies. An insider purchase is usually followed by a positive stock return, and insiders selling shares have the opposite impact. The aim of this thesis is to investigate if the information provided by insider transactions can be used to create a potential trading strategy for IPOs. Through statistical analysis, a negative relationship is found between the insider trading and IPO long-term stock performance, indicating that insider buying shares are connected to lesser stock performance. This contradicts previous research regarding insider trading in seasoned firms and opens up for discussion. By implementing a theoretical framework, a deeper analysis of the proposed relationship is be made. This study concludes that the negative relationship between insider trading and long-term IPO stock performance is not directly caused by insider trading itself. Instead, it is a result of insiders making poor investment decisions due to outside pressure and behavioral factors.
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