Democratization and Structured Contingency in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes: A Nested Investigation

Sammanfattning: The aim with this study is to empirically investigate explanations behind different levels of democracy in a competitive authoritarian setting. My theoretical perspective is based on a structured contingency approach, since I argue that the common dichotomy between structural and actor-oriented causes behind democratization is unfruitful. Moreover, I use a nested research design that combines cross-national analyses with case study research. The main finding of the quantitative analysis is that diffusion effects and opposition mobilization are significant when it comes to explaining variation on the dependent variable. Among these factors the small-n analysis focuses on the latter, which is motivated by the fact that the statistical result concerning opposition mobilization is relatively more secure. The case study investigates the bulldozer revolution that occurred in Serbia (2000). In this analysis I demonstrate that the ousting of Milosevic can be understood from a background of low regime legitimacy and international inspiration effects. These structural circumstances enabled actors within the Serbian opposition to mobilize massively, which in the end led to splits between the incumbent regime and the state security forces.