Solar Energy Potential in Kosovo : Pilot study of installation with photovoltaic modules at The University of Prishtina

Detta är en Kandidat-uppsats från KTH/Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik; KTH/Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik

Sammanfattning: The Republic of Kosovo, and its 1.8 million inhabitants, is heavily reliant on two highly pollutive lignite coal-fired power plants, Kosova A and Kosova B for energy generation. The coal-fired power plants, that cover 91% of the energy generation, are reaching the end of their operational life and are in need of either restoration or discontinuation. This implies that Kosovo is in need of energy alternatives for a more flexible energy system which could open opportunities for renewable energy. Solar power in Kosovo is still at a low percentage of less than 1%, and its future penetration is being held back by lack of investments and underdeveloped regulatory framework. Affordable and reliable energy, from solar power, could reduce poverty, lower unemployment, boost economic growth and improve people's health in Kosovo. This coincides with the sustainability goals set by the UN Agenda 2030 and specifically goal 7, ‘Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all’. The aim of the project was to design a techno-economically optimal PV-system at The University of Prishtina and to investigate the potential technical, social and economic impacts of implementing PV-systems in Kosovo to help achieve the UN 2030 Agenda, specifically SDG 7. The project consists of a quantitative part where simulations were done with the System Advisor Model (SAM) in order to calculate the energy generation and profitability of installing photovoltaic modules at The University of Prishtina with different policy-schemes. In addition, a qualitative study was done by compiling information on the policy structures in Kosovo and other european countries in order to identify obstacles and future trends in the development of renewables. The results showed that it is profitable for the University of Prishtina to install a PV-system in which the inspected financial indicators such as NPV, LCOE and payback time showed profitability for all policy-scenarios. In the base scenario with 200 kWp, which follows the current policy and capacity restrictions on the maximum allowed capacity of 100 kWp per metering point, 60% of the yearly electricity bills were covered. Two additional models were made with alternative policy-scenarios, one with a net-billing model in which sell-rates were altered and another with a higher capacity of 298.49 kWp utilizing the whole roof area. The system of 298.49 kWp gave the highest energy production and could cover 80% of the early electricity bills. The net-billing simulations indicated that profitability is also feasible for small-scale PV in a net-billing scheme with low sell-rates of electricity. LCOE ranged from $6.98 to 8.24 ¢/kWh, for all policy-scenarios, which was lower than the buy-rate of electricity for The University of Prishtina. The results from the simulations along with the qualitative study conclude that the cost- and technical potential for solar power is profitable and feasible. In addition to socio-economic factors such as job-opportunities and health benefits, solar power could be a competitive energy alternative in comparison to current forms of energy generation in Kosovo. However, due to restrictive RES-policy and potentially costly FiT’s in Kosovo a proposition, collected through qualitative studies, is to switch to auctioning schemes with possible usage of FiP’s, if needed, for large- scale PV with regulators putting an emphasis on an open, fair and competitive market. Solar power is competitive and would fare well in such schemes and its implementation should be encouraged by stakeholders and regulators in Kosovo.

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