The Electricity Market A broken system or an exciting opportunity?
Sammanfattning: The electricity market is facing major changes in the coming years, with major production facilities that must be replaced and climate targets that are required to be met. The approach to the targets in the electricity market has been to invest in renewable energy, mostly in the form of wind power. However, it is an intermittent production type where production depends on weather conditions and planning cannot be predetermined. As a result, the price of electricity has varied a lot in recent years and has also become very low, which causes profitability challenges for the electricity producers. One consequence is the closure of four nuclear reactors due to lack of profitability. This creates a more uncertain environment for the Swedish industry, which is dependent on both low electricity prices and reliable power supply. A way to counter this has been the “Energy Agreement”, that partly aims to promote the use of nuclear power for their total technical service life. The electrical system will change until 2030 in many ways, but how this will go is difficult to predict. By creating three different scenarios that reflect likely future changes, it has been possible to draw conclusions about what is necessary to change for the electricity system to be robust and competitive in the future. These scenarios consider wind power, active nuclear reactors, export opportunities and future electricity prices. These three scenarios have included identification of the most important parameters that need to be changed or considered by 2030. These parameters have been divided into price issues, delivery security and taxes with subsequent proposals. The most important items under these are to maintain the marginal cost based pricing model, create incentives for flexibility of electricity users and for manufacturers to provide the power grid with inertia. These require special focus to create a robust and flexible system, but remaining points are required as well to handle these issues. These points resulted in a framework that should form the basis for decision making. The framework should also be used in its entirety to analyze situations that may arise during the transition from today's market to the future's renewable electricity system.
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