Moment 22 vid finansiering av nyproduktion av bostadsrätter.

Sammanfattning: Sweden has under a long time suffered from a large housing shortage that has led to severe problems in society. The shortage has led to a very limited mobility within the housing market. This is because a person who has acquired a home unwillingly wants to move, partly because of the high transaction costs, housing prices and lack of alternatives. This restricts business and industry from growing and hiring the right skills because the new staff cannot find accommodations. The shortage has pushed prices to high levels for owned housing and created long queues for rented housing. Housing prices reached a peak in 2017 and since then the future of the market has become more uncertain. Falling prices, delays of access, and negative press have contributed to the more hesitant consumers. This means that buyers of housing cooperative shares no longer dare to buy the housing before it’s built and carry the risk that it entails. The high asking price for housing is one factor, but the major reason is the long time between purchase of the housing until the access date and the market risk during that time. When the consumers no longer dare to carry the initial risk of the building project the developers don’t reach the required percentage of sales, then the banks no longer allow a construction loan. In addition, the Swedish financial supervisory authority has introduced a number of credit restrictions and amortization requirements that have further inhibit the market. Here is a vacuum in the traditional financing model, a catch-22. This has led to a new decline in housing construction over the past year. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what alternative financing or solutions that could solve this deadlock. At the same time the report investigates how the industry views the future of the market, the origins of the deadlock, what problems Swedish housing construction is facing and if any political changes would be required. The method chosen was to conduct a personal interview study in order to obtain nuanced answers and a better understanding of the complex problem, Swedish housing supply and the rules of the market. This was complemented with a study of literature to link the results to relevant theory. The results show that this catch-22 on the initial financing and the question about who should carry the initial risk can be solved through a couple of possible solutions. These solutions transfer risk from consumers to either the developer or venture capital. The most realistic solution is that a developer uses equity or external venture capital to start a construction when the bank does not grant a construction permit. When the house is under construction, it is much easier to convince consumers that the project will be completed and stick to the time frame, while reducing the time to the access of the housing and thus reducing the risk for the consumer. Then hopefully the apartments will be sold, and when the bank’s requirements are met, the project developer can switch to using a traditional construction credit. The study shows that the traditional financing model where consumers buy a share in a housing cooperative before construction on a drawing, will continue to be relevant when buyers have a strong confidence in the market’s future. However, models where the developer must undertake more risk and start construction without secured buyers will complement it in times when consumers are more uncertain about market developments. The industry is likely to see an increase in well-capitalized players who build more on speculation from their own equity. The risk will be transferred from the private person on to the developer. The company can then get the profit (or part of it) that previously went to the private individuals who took the risk. The study is of relevance as it highlights many of the different problems in Swedish housing supply that together has created this problematic situation.