Predicting the future summer range of a declining Arctic waterfowl: the Greenland White-fronted Goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris)

Sammanfattning: This study investigates what the future might hold for an endemic goose species, found exclusively in the low Arctic region of West Greenland. Facing a decline since four decades, the Greenland White-fronted Goose constitutes one of few goose populations showing a declining trend. Warmer temperatures on the breeding grounds and improved winter survival seem to benefit most populations of geese. Here, a species distribution model is applied to predict how the environmental conditions of low Arctic Greenland might change in the future. A ‘business as usual’ scenario, projected with two different climate models, indeed showed improved future conditions within the summer range of the Greenland White-fronted Goose. Snow cover, followed by temperature, was found to be the most important environmental factor shaping the distribution. Furthermore, novel potential breeding grounds were located on the southeast coast of Greenland, opposite the current summer range. This area is discussed in terms of becoming a future refuge for this vulnerable population, away from the newly established Greater Canada Goose in West Greenland. Interactions between the two species seem to have increasingly negative effects on the breeding success of Greenland White-fronted Goose. Whether the novel breeding grounds will eventually become colonized or not remains highly uncertain. However, other goose populations have shown such range shifts to be possible.