Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Euro Area: a Sectoral and National Study
Sammanfattning: This thesis examines how business cycle synchronisation within the euro area changes after the onset of the 2007/2008 financial crisis, looking both at the sectoral and the national level. Three measures are used to study the change in synchronisation: correlation, relative volatility, and elasticity. The results show that synchronisation decreases post-crisis in terms of correlation and relative volatility, while there is no trend for elasticity. These results are consistent both at the sectoral and the national level, but, depending on the measure of synchronisation, not across all filters. In terms of correlation, industry and wholesale are the predominant sectors for national synchronisation, but it is not possible to observe any predominant sectors for relative volatility and elasticity. Greece appears to be the least synchronised EA-12 country; the level of correlation falls and the relative volatility increases, while the elasticity does not significantly change. Other countries show similar trends, but since Greece started out in a position of low synchronisation, while other countries did not, the case of Greece is especially problematic from an optimal currency area perspective.
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