När har all Sveriges skog brunnit ned? En studie över svenska skogsbränder under åren 1998 till 2018.
Sammanfattning: This thesis uses a data material from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) to analyze forest fires in Sweden between 1998 and 2018. The thesis also uses weather data (precipitation and average temperature) as explanatory variables in two different regression models. The purpose of this thesis is to make predictions for the number of forest fires and the total burned down hectare of forest for the period 2019 to 2021. This is a research field where, for Swedish conditions, there is a lack of research and this thesis aims to fill that gap. Since the number of forest fires is a discrete variable a GLM model, that incorporates auto-regressive terms, is used and the observations are assumed to follow a Negative Binomial Distribution. To make predictions for the total burned down hectare of forest a multiple linear regression model is used. Our results suggest minor deviations in future forest fires from the overall pattern over the last two decades. However, our predictions carry some uncertainty since our prediction intervals are quite wide.
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