Trendanalys av klimatdata med regressionsmetoder

Detta är en Uppsats för yrkesexamina på avancerad nivå från Uppsala universitet/Matematiska institutionen

Sammanfattning:

 The discussion about climate change and how it

affects the earth has existed for years and is still

ongoing. The European Climate & Assessment Project

conveys data related to climate, which has been used

in this thesis to investigate climate changes.

The aim of this thesis was to investigate trends in

time series for specific indicators and stations. The

climate indicator Consecutive Summer Days was

chosen and the stations Stockholm and Munich were

investigated. The main focus has been on the

statistics used in this thesis to investigate the aim of

the study. Conclusions regarding an appropriate

distribution for the data and independence in the

explanatory variable were necessary to conclude with

statistical methodology. To reach the conclusions the

Negative Binomial Distribution was fitted. An

assumption about independence in the explanatory

variable was also made. Regression modelling could

therefore be performed at data to investigate possible

trends. The results from the study demonstrate an

ascending trend in the chosen indicator in both

Stockholm and Munich. This master thesis is a

contribution to the climate research. The

methodology used and the results gained can be used

to support future studies within the climate research

or other areas.

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