Svensk avskräckningsstrategi : En småstats förmåga till avskräckning med konventionella medel

Sammanfattning: According to Sweden’s military strategic doctrine, Swedish defense capabilities should be deterrent based upon deterrence. The ambition to deter potential aggressors is also expressed in guiding and executive political documents. There are a few defining expressions within the theories of deterrence of which credibility is considered as vital. However, over the recent years the credibility of the Swedish defense forces has been exposed to criticism. Among the critics is the supreme commander who has publicly stated that Swedish defense doesn´t reach the decided capability. Since credibility is considered a corner stone in deterrence, is it possible for Sweden to apply a deterrent strategy despite its credibility issues? The purpose of this single case study is to examine Swedish efforts to act deterrent when applying the theoretical definitions of deterrence. Current political documents and the Swedish military strategic doctrine constitutes the material that has been reviewed through qualitative text analysis. As an instrument for analyzing the material, three fundamental criteria within deterrence theories has been used as indicators. These criteria are credibility, ability and communication. The result shows that both political and military documents share a common direction. Swedish defense capability is currently undergoing a change towards a national defense built on a credible security strategy. This strategy contains both active and passive measures grounded in the theories of deterrence.