Utility-Scale Solar Power Plants with Storage : Cost Comparison and Growth Forecast Analysis

Sammanfattning: Renewable energy for energy production, like Solar, is turning out to be very pertinent in today's world [1]. It is very clear that Solar Energy is going to emerge as one of the key sources of energy in future. Moreover, the storage option is going to play an essential role to the future deployment of solar power plants. Concentrated solar power plants with thermal storage, photovoltaic plants integrated with battery energy storage, and hybrid plants are attractive solutions to obtain a stable and dispatchable energy production. Investors or policymakers usually find it challenging to come up with the most feasible solar storage technology because they need to consider techno-economic feasibility, and at the same time, from a market or administrative perspective as well. So, this thesis study will address the key problem which is aimed at investors or policymakers since there is a need to choose the best solar storage technology at a utility level in future based on so many attributes. The thesis project was carried out in two phases which includes forecast modelling & estimations and techno-economic assessment of virtual plants. These two phases helped to address various questions in relation to the problem statement of this study. The entire thesis study broadly covered seven countries spanning across four major regions around the world. The first phase of the thesis, forecast modelling estimations shows how the seven countries will look in future (2020 – 2050) with respect to installed capacity and costs for PV, CSP, and BESS technologies. Some major results from phase 1 include, in low-cost estimates, China will remain to be the market leader in PV & CSP by 2050. In U.S.A and India, the installed costs of PV are projected to decline by 70% by 2050. By 2050, the installed costs of Solar Tower technology are estimated to drop by about 65% in China and Spain. In U.S.A, the prices of BESS technology are likely to fall by around 58 – 60 % by 2050. In the second phase of thesis study, a techno-economic evaluation of virtual plants addressed the aspects which are to be considered for a solar project if it is deployed in future across seven specific countries. Results from this analysis helps investors or policymakers to choose the cheapest solar storage technology at a utility level across seven specific countries in future (2020 – 2050). Key results from this analysis show that, in the U.S.A, by 2050, PV+BESS will be the cheapest storage technology for 4 – 10 storage hours. Addition of another renewable technology will add up more viability to the comparison. In China, Hybrid will be the cheapest storage technology for 4 – 8 hrs by 2050. There is huge potential for deployment of CSP & hybrid plants in future than PV. In South Africa, CSP will be the cheapest storage technology by 2050 for 4 – 10 hours of storage. It is assumed that deployment of BESS projects at utility level starts from 2025 in South Africa. Beyond this, market forces analysis was carried out which offers insights especially for the policymakers of how various drivers and constraints are influencing each solar technology across the specific countries in future. Overall, the entire thesis study provides guidelines/insights to investors or policy makers for choosing the best solar storage technology in future at a utility scale for a particular country.