Corporate responsiveness to drivers of change : Using scenarios to improve decision making on sustainable management of complex dynamic ecosystems

Detta är en Master-uppsats från Stockholms universitet/Stockholm Resilience Centre

Sammanfattning: In order to make robust decisions on how to deal with future ecosystem changes, managers need to be aware of the complexity, uncertainty, thresholds and surprises that are inherent characteristics of social-ecological systems. The subject of this paper is the use of scenarios as a tool to increase corporate responsiveness to change by improving decision making on the sustainable management of complex dynamic ecosystems. Scenarios were shown to be a useful tool to integrate in the systematic management of corporate risks and opportunities that may arise as a result of these future changes in ecosystems. Although the scenarios did not contribute to the identification of any additional risks and opportunities, they did have the capability to make the ESR into a better communication tool. The specific objectives of this paper were firstly, (i) to discuss the use of scenario analysis and how it works, secondly, (ii) demonstrate how scenarios can be integrated into the Ecosystem Service Review (ESR) methodology, and finally, (iii) present the benefits such integration would bring to decision makers. A case study was carried out at Lantmännen, to fulfill these objectives. This paper demonstrates that integrating scenarios in the ESR can make issues regarding ecosystem services and biodiversity more easily understandable and also deliver a sense of urgency for action. This proves critical when communicating strategies to other decision makers within an organization and in order to successfully manage risks and grasp opportunities arising as a result of changing ecosystems.

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