Natural Hazards Impact on Real Estate Value : A Semi - Quantitative Risk Assessment of the Climatic Impact on Commercial Buildings in Milan, Italy

Sammanfattning: In the light of the increased frequency of natural hazards in Europe alongside the high impact a hazardous event has on real estate value, real estate owners need to manage and strengthen assets within their entire portfolio to increase resilience and minimize the vulnerability to future negative impact. Further, a research gap exists in how to incorporate climate variables with real estate specifics which makes it challenging for property managers and other stakeholders to interpret the climatic impact on a particular asset. To understand how these climatic impacts could implicate assets in the future, this research study aims to investigate the risk profiles for five commercial buildings in Milan, Italy, by performing a risk rating assessment. The study is collecting historical weather data for strong wind, heatwave, and heavy precipitation and performs future estimations for expected frequency and probability in Milan for the upcoming 20 years. The study also involves a practical part where five assets have been analyzed based on a developed vulnerability checklist to capture climatic variables with asset characteristics and the final risk score is calculated with a risk rating technique. Findings show that the expected frequency of each hazard during a 10-year period will by the end of 2041 in a worst- case scenario reach 95, 156, and 78 times (strong wind, heatwave, and heavy precipitation). This result indicates almost a doubled number of heatwaves in Milan compared to 1981. Results from the risk rating show that assets located in very exposed areas and with a high risk of negative impact to the foundation or fundamental installations tend to score high. This study provides a methodology to build upon for how to evaluate and calculate risk for an asset that could be used for estimating future climatic and financial impact to assets. This will help improve decision-making regarding climate change for property managers, real estate owners, and other stakeholders for parts of, or, the entire portfolio.