TRIM : – Metod för att identifiera risker och uppskatta projekttider

Sammanfattning: ITT Flygt is a world leading company that mainly manufactures submersible pumps. A problem of ITT Flygt is that product development projects rarely manage to hold the estimated project time. It shows that something unexpected occurs in projects quite often, which results in delays. The delays can both be due to an optimistic time plan of projects and risks in product development projects which are not discovered at an early stage. This added with unforeseen delays makes it difficult for ITT Flygt to estimate the duration of their projects. The goal with the Master thesis is to examine a suitable method for simulation of project time. By doing probability calculation for a project schedule a risk analysis can be done. Another aim of the thesis is to create a method that enables the identification of risks in product development projects. To examine this, both an extensive literature study and empirical study was performed. The empirical studies include interviews with project managers at ITT Flygt and studies of other companies. MatLab were used to examine possible simulation methods to estimate the duration of a project. On the basis of ITT Flygt´s problem and prerequisites a method was made with the name The Risk Identification Method (TRIM). TRIM is a method which is described in a practical and standardized way of working, where a project’s different areas are analyzed to identify risks. The method contains a checklist where constantly recurring risks in product development projects can be found, and a way to identify unique risks through a project specification. Another part of TRIM is to do a project time simulation. The best suitable simulation method for ITT Flygt is the Monte Carlo simulation. By doing a simulation graphs over estimated project time can be accomplished as well as the critical path can be studied. To the simulations ITT Flygt is required to use the cost and schedule risk analysis program @Risk for Project. TRIM gives ITT Flygt the opportunity to work in a structured way when it comes to risk analysis of projects. The authors demand, as far as they are concerned, is that those who use the method should continuously do updates of the checklist and the input data which are used in the Monte Carlo simulation.