Mediating with God : Quantitative Analysis on Mediation and Religiosity - What effect does severity of conflict have on mediation onset in religious conflicts?

Sammanfattning: The number of conflicts with religious dimensions has been steadily increasing over the last few decades. Previous research has found that religious conflicts are less likely to end by mediation whilst little research has been done as to what makes them initiate mediation. Building upon Ripeness Theory, this paper argues that the religious component makes religious parties less sensitive towards mutually hurting stalemates, but not immune to them, due to their heterogenous nature. This proposition is analysed by examining the empirical pattern of mediation onset in conflicts over religious incompatibilities using a logistic regression analysis. The findings suggest that higher numbers of average battle-related deaths, together with the duration of conflict and presence of crude oil reserves, increase the likelihood of mediation onset, whilst differentiations in centrality of a religious goal or religious identity divides have no statistically significant effect.