Forecast-based Financing in Urban Informal Settlements - A Viable Disaster Risk Management Strategy?

Sammanfattning: Rationale: Urban informal settlements are vulnerable and exposed to hazards. Weather forecasting is possible and provides a “window of opportunity” to push cash or aid to vulnerable dwellers before the disaster strikes. Forecast-based Financing is a framework, which provides this system, and it has had great success with rural pilots. Currently no research has investigated the implementation of Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements. Research question: The thesis investigates the obstacles and benefits of implementing Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements and discusses whether Forecast-based Financing is a viable disaster risk management strategy in urban informal settlements. Methodology: The thesis uses three scoping studies to investigate what is known about Forecast-based Finaning in scientific and grey literature and what is known in scientific literature about preparedness work related to floods in urban informal settlements. The scoping studies are the basis for conducting five semi-structured interviews with FbF practitioners. Findings: Several obstacles and benefits of implementing Forecast-based Financing in urban informal settlements were identified. Obstacles varied from lack of commitment from local governments, large numbers of actors, general vulnerability, identifying appropriate actions, lack of communication and coordination, hetereogeneous communities, attracting new dwellers, safety issues, and lack of long-term thinking. Benefits were related to being able to act faster and not waiting until after the disaster, financial efficiency, keeping dwellers from adopting negative coping strategies and linking actors while improving communication and coordination. Conclusion: Benefits outweigh obstacles and Forecast-based Financing is a viable disaster risk management strategy in urban informal settlements.