Robust översvämningshantering under osäkerhet i framtida förtätning och klimatförändring - Ett förslag på beslutsanalys

Sammanfattning: The outcomes of flood management are uncertain since climate change and urban densification are expected to result in higher amounts of surface runoff, and both these changes are subject to uncertainty. When uncertainty is deep, there is a need for strategies to treat uncertainty, e.g. taking the limitations of quantification by probabilities into account, and to guide decisions to be robust to uncertainty. In this masters thesis, a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is derived for comparing flood management measures, including their robustness to uncertainty. Performances of management measures are assessed based on five decision criteria evaluated under six scenarios, representing different states of urban densification and climate change, and six decision rules, testing the sensitivity to how uncertainty is taken into account. The resulting robust decision analysis was applied as a case study on an urban area in the municipality of Lund, Sweden.