Dividend Payout, Effective Future Firm Value and the Role of National Governance

Sammanfattning: This research examines the impact of dividend payout (DP) on future effective firm value for a large international sample of publicly listed companies. Besides the known share price drop right after dividend announcements, literature provides a solid basis for argumentation towards a positive as well as a negative relationship on a longer horizon, going beyond this initial market reaction. The underlying research is the first to discuss and directly examine this issue, following the valuation model introduced by Fama and French (1998). The statistically significant and robust results show a positive impact of DP towards future firm value on a one- and two-year horizon. This research further accounts for the effect of National Governance (NG), proxied by the World Governance Index, as country level moderator on the main relationship. The interacting effect on the main variables is statistically significant on horizons beyond one year.