The electricity system vulnerability of selected European countries to climate change : A comparative analysis

Sammanfattning: The electricity system is particularly susceptible to climate change due to the close interconnectedness between not only electricity production and consumption to climate, but also the interdependence of many European countries in terms of electricity imports and exports. This study provides a country based relative analysis of a number of selected European countries’ electricity system vulnerability to climate change. Taking into account a number of quantitative influencing factors, the vulnerability of each country is examined both for the current system and using some projected data. Ultimately the result of the analysis is a relative ranked vulnerability index based on a number of qualitative indicators. Overall, countries that either cannot currently meet their own electricity consumption demand with inland production (Luxembourg), or countries that experience and will experience the warmest national mean temperatures, and are expected to see increases in their summer electricity consumption are found to be the most vulnerable for example Greece and Italy. Countries such as the Czech Republic, France and Norway that consistently export surplus electricity and will experience decreases in winter electricity consumption peaks were found to be the least vulnerable to climate change. The inclusion of some qualitative factors however may subject their future vulnerability to increase. The findings of this study enable countries to identify the main factors that increase their electricity system vulnerability and proceed with adaptation measures that are the most eective in decreasing vulnerability.