Explaining negotiated settlements to armed conflict. Lessons from the Tajik civil war and peace process
Sammanfattning: The study aims to increase our understanding of the limitations and benefits of structural and agent-oriented accounts in explaining the success and failure of peace negotiations. The propositions of ripeness and readiness theory are analysed through the lens of the agency-structure debate. Implicit assumptions on the nature of agents and structures, contained within the theories’ propositions on causality, are made explicit. Hypotheses are then formulated on the basis of these propositions, and applied to the case of the Tajik civil war and peace process. The study concludes that agential and structural explanations each have their own limitations and benefits in the context of the Tajik civil war. No single set of explanation can by itself fully explain the outcome. Instead, agential and structural explanations largely complement each other in providing a complete account of the peace process. In the specific case of Tajikistan, however, it is also concluded that contextual factors were the most important in eventually deciding the outcome.
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