PCB i Oxundasjön och Rosersbergsviken : Prediktiv modellering av återhämtningsscenarier

Sammanfattning: A regional survey of environmentally harmful substances in fish in autumn 2013 revealed elevated levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in perch from Lake Oxundasjön, north of Upplands Väsby in Stockholm County. Follow-up studies have shown that the quantity of PCBs contained in the lake is unique of its kind in Sweden, and that the area of influence also includes downstream Rosersbergsviken, a bay of Lake Mälaren. The elevated concentrations in fish exceed today's market limits and environmental quality standards for PCBs, as of this, responsible authorities discourage from consumption of fish from Lake Oxundasjön and Rosersbergsviken. The aim has been to use statistical analyses and mass-balance modelling to study the current state of the lake system and how it may evolve in the future under different circumstances. There is a statistically significant correlation between PCB levels in sediment and perch from 21 different sites in the Stockholm-Mälaren region, including Lake Oxundasjön and Rosersbergsviken, this was demonstrated with a linear regression model. With the multivariate analysis method principal component analysis (PCA), it was illustrated how the contaminant levels in fish from Lake Oxundasjön and Rosersbergsviken differed on contaminant levels in fish from other sites. The difference mainly concerned the size and composition of PCBs. Mass-balance modelling of quantities and flows of PCBs in Lake Oxundasjön and Rosersbergsviken was made in the simulation program STELLA®. The modelling indicated that the system currently serves as a secondary distribution source of PCBs to the environment. The recovery of PCB levels is slow in the system, it will take more than 25 years for concentrations in fish to reach today’s market limits and environmental quality standards for PCBs. The model was used to evaluate three different treatment methods for Lake Oxundasjön: dredging, capping and activated carbon treatment. Simulations of these treatments led to a substantial improvement of the PCB situation in Lake Oxundasjön. Moreover, they also had a positive impact on the recovery process in the downstream Rosersbergsviken. Future climate changes, with warmer temperatures and higher run off, led to a slightly faster recovery progress of PCBs in the system.