Skuldkvotens utveckling i Sverige - En tidsserieanalys av hur BNP, huspriser och realräntan har drivit de svenska hushållens skuldkvot

Sammanfattning: The debt-to-income ratio in Sweden has the last year reached an alarming high level after years of a continuously upgoing trend. Hence, it is frequently discussed between institutions, governmental authorities and media. This thesis aims to investigate the level of impact economic activity, the housing market and financial costs of mortgages has on the debt-to-income ratio. This is done by using GDP, housing prices and real interest rate in a multiple regression time series model. The result shows that GDP and the real interest rate have a significant negative long run impact on the debt-to-income ratio. The result also show that housing prices have a significant positive long run impact on households’ debt-to-income ratio. In the discussion the result is linked to Modigliani's life cycle theory, the financial accelerator and different policy actions.